Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 4,189.5–4,189.6 feet at a 74% chance, ahead of 4,189.3–4,189.4 feet at 27% and Below 4,189.3 feet at 2%.
YES goes to the answer whose range contains the lowest daily mean water-surface elevation of the Great Salt Lake recorded at the Saltair Boat Harbor gage in Utah (USGS site 10010000, parameter 62614, feet above NGVD 1929) for any day from 1 January through 31 December 2026; every other answer is NO. Readings from earlier in 2026 count, and the lowest daily mean needs to occur on only one day; it does not have to last. Days without a published reading are skipped and the lowest published value is used. USGS publishes this gage to one decimal place and those values are used as published. A value with more decimals is first rounded half up to one decimal, so 4,189.45 feet becomes 4,189.5 feet. The answers cover every one-decimal value without gaps, so each reading fits exactly one answer; a lowest value of exactly 4,189.3 feet, for example, falls in 4,189.3–4,189.4 feet. Settlement uses the values published at that time, whether marked provisional (P) or approved (A); later revisions are ignored unless the correction rule applies. If some data are still unpublished or not final, settlement waits until the end of 2 January 2027 (11:59 PM ET) and then uses the data published by then. If a value is obviously erroneous (a clerical or similar error, not a mere difference between USGS and other sources), settlement may wait until 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the day that value first appears, so that it can be corrected. If the USGS service is unavailable, settlement may wait until 15 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET; only if no data for 2026 is available by then is Below 4,189.3 feet YES. Data from the USGS Daily Values service for gage 10010000 is the primary source; reliable reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
