Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This prediction is about New Zealand's general election scheduled for 7 November 2026 and the number of seats the National Party wins in the House of Representatives at that election. YES if National wins from 45 to 49 seats, both included; otherwise NO. Only the National Party's own seat total from this election matters, nothing else. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, it is treated as fewer than 25 seats, so then only the under-25 answer is YES. Consistent reporting by reputable news outlets decides; if it is unclear, only the official figures of the New Zealand Electoral Commission (elections.nz) count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
