Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if South Korea's real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2026, measured against the same quarter a year earlier, is 5.0% or higher; any other figure gives NO. The figure comes from the advance estimate of real GDP that the Bank of Korea publishes for that quarter, scheduled for 27 October 2026 (Seoul local time): the Gross Domestic Product row of its growth table for the unadjusted (original) series, year-on-year change, read at one decimal place. A change in the format of the release does not stop a published figure from counting. Only that first release counts; later revisions are ignored. If no figure for that quarter is out by the scheduled release of the next quarter's data, the latest quarter published by then is used instead. The Bank of Korea release decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
