Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 22:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES applies if, after 2026-09-24T08:36:25.649078Z (UTC) through 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the standard output rate for Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model reaches $20 or more per million tokens. The eligible model is explicitly named Sonnet and has a standard output-token rate displayed on Anthropic's API pricing page; choose the highest version number, using the newest release when versions tie. Public access includes open beta and openly available rolling-waitlist signup; private, closed or otherwise limited access is excluded. A rate counts only while that model is the latest eligible Sonnet. Use the Base tokens output charge for default global inference without long-context surcharges. Ignore batch, fast, cached, U.S.-only and other residency rates, plus promotions, temporary prices and volume discounts. If no qualifying rate reaches the threshold during this interval, NO applies. Anthropic's API pricing page controls; announcements and archived page copies may establish the value and timing, with broadly consistent reputable reporting also usable.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
