Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if, in the Wisconsin Governor election on 3 November 2026, the Republican nominee wins by at least 3 but less than 6 percentage points; otherwise NO. The margin is the absolute percentage-point gap between the first- and second-placed candidates; each candidate's percentage is their valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. The Republican and Democratic slots belong to the candidates those parties nominate; if either nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement takes that party's slot. Independents are not party options. A gap exactly on a bracket boundary counts in the higher bracket, so a gap of exactly 3 points counts as 3 to 6 points. If the lead is tied, the tie counts as a win in the lowest bracket (under 3 points) for the tied party nominee whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically; a tie between one party nominee and another candidate counts for that party nominee, and a tie only among other candidates means NO. The certified official result counts, and the prediction stays open through any recount started before certification. If the result is not definite by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. The Wisconsin authority certifying the election decides; overwhelming agreement among reputable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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