Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:21 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Alibaba owns the eligible model ranked first in the arena.ai Text Arena Math table, filtered to Models, when it is checked on 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; otherwise NO. The Text Arena Math leaderboard is read with style control off and Adjustments set to None. Models marked AutoEval at the check time are left out. Rank decides first; for equal ranks the underlying unrounded Arena score decides, and after that the alphabetical order of the company names. If the top model belongs to another company, the answer is NO. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check, the first check after it returns is used; if it is permanently unavailable, the answer is NO. The arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
