Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 15-25% at a 41% chance, ahead of Democrat 55%+ at 38% and Democrat 25-30% at 38%.
YES goes to the answer that matches both the winner and the winning margin of the 2026 US House election in California's 8th congressional district (CA-08), expected on 3 November 2026. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the first-place and second-place candidates: each of the two shares is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election, and the runner-up's share is subtracted from the winner's. Example: a Democrat who wins 64% to 36% has a 28-point margin, so “Democrat by 25–30 points” is YES. “Democrat” and “Republican” mean any candidate of that party who appears on the general-election ballot, and “Republican wins” is YES for any Republican victory, whatever the margin. A margin exactly on the boundary between two bands counts in the higher band. If the winner is neither a Democrat nor a Republican, every answer is NO. If several candidates share first place, YES goes to the lowest band of one of them (“Democrat by 0–15 points” for a Democrat, “Republican wins” for a Republican): between two Democratic or Republican candidates, the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically, even though the answers show only the party; between a Democratic or Republican candidate and anyone else, the Democratic or Republican candidate; if only other candidates tie, every answer is NO. Settlement uses the official vote count once it has been made official; if a recount starts before then, settlement waits until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is still not definitively known on 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. Official results from the California authority that certifies the election decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
