Which world leader will be the next to go by 31 Dec?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is None before 2027 at a 40% chance, ahead of Netanyahu - Israel PM at 26% and Sánchez - Spanish PM at 18%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-12-31 00:00 UTC

Answers

22

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

This market resolves to the first listed person who permanently stops holding the office associated with their name. What qualifies: The individual must actually and permanently leave the listed office. The outcome is determined by who ceases holding office first. What does NOT qualify: An announcement of resignation or removal is insufficient on its own. A planned departure resulting from an election also does not count until the individual has actually left office. Temporary removal or transfer of authority does not qualify. This includes suspension during impeachment proceedings, such as Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment suspension, a temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any comparable provisional transfer of power. Caretaker and interim service: An individual who continues performing the role in a caretaker or interim capacity is still considered to occupy the office. For example, remaining as caretaker prime minister, as Gabriel Attal did in France, does not qualify as leaving office. If none of the listed individuals permanently leaves office by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET, the market resolves to “None before 2027.” No additional individuals may be added to the market after its creation. Resolution source: A consensus of credible reporting.

Answer options

• Macron - France President2%
• Erdoğan - Türkiye President1%