Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 8 or 9 seats at a 38% chance, ahead of Fewer than 6 seats at 22% and 6 or 7 seats at 17%.
The winning band is determined solely by the seats awarded to Yisrael Beiteinu through Israel’s legislative election expected on 27 October 2026. Exactly one band receives YES and all remaining bands receive NO. If the party runs on a combined candidate list, count every seat awarded to that whole list. If it merges before voting, count all seats won by the merged party or the combined list that the merged party joins. Seats below six, six or seven, eight or nine, ten or eleven, and twelve or above cover all possible totals. If a definitive result remains unavailable at 11:59 PM ET on 31 October 2027, select the lowest band. Use agreement among reliable news reports initially. If uncertainty remains, rely only on the published figures from Israel’s election committee (Va’adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit), the official authority for these results.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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