Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices December 31 at a 6% chance and September 30 at <1%.
This market resolves YES if the United States government or military officially announces or confirms that it has obtained possession of any amount of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by June 1, 2026, 05:59 CEST. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What counts as possession: The United States must have actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether the material is held inside U.S. territory or elsewhere. How possession may be obtained: Any method qualifies, including an agreed surrender or a seizure of the enriched uranium. What does NOT qualify: Announcements of agreements, deals, commitments, or future plans under which the United States would obtain the uranium at a later date do not count. Physical custody or control must be established by the deadline. Reporting requirement: A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has obtained possession of Iranian enriched uranium is sufficient for a YES resolution, even without a formal U.S. announcement. Resolution source: Official information from the United States government is the primary source, although a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by
