Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 8% chance and No at 92%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issues a new combined license (COL) authorizing the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” To qualify, the license must be clearly identified as a combined license in official NRC materials. Only an initial issuance will count; amendments, renewals, and partial approvals will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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