Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 55-60% at a 30% chance, ahead of Democrat 50-55% at 28% and Democrat 25-35% at 18%.
The winning candidate or party option and its margin bracket receive YES, using the absolute percentage-point gap between the leading and second-place candidates in the NC-12 House election on November 3, 2026. Each percentage is the candidate’s valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest; party nominees stand for Democrat and Republican, while independents are not party options. If a named party nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement occupies that party’s slot and the displayed name is updated. If a gap lands exactly on a boundary, use the higher bracket. If the leading vote is tied, use the lowest bracket for the listed candidate whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; a tie with an unlisted candidate uses the listed candidate's lowest bracket, and a tie only among unlisted candidates is Other. The Republican/Democrat label still uses the nominee's ballot surname for this tie rule. Count the certified official result, keeping the prediction open through any recount started before certification. If the result is not definite by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, settle Other. The state authority certifying the election is primary, and an overwhelming agreement among reputable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
