Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta, as of February 6, 2026 a Canadian province, to the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, whether as a state, a territory or under any other classification within the US system. An official announcement by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, made within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the transfer of sovereignty has yet to take place. Only announcements of official agreements or actions, such as a ratified treaty or signed legislation, will count. Mere suggestions, negotiations or posts on social media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Canada and Alberta, although a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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