Prediction
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES requires a publicly available mathematical work by 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET that, without relying on any unproved conjecture, establishes a lower bound of at least 70% for nontrivial zeta zeros on the critical line, or settles the full Riemann Hypothesis either way. Mere computer checks, conditional or heuristic arguments, unsupported claims, and improvements below 70% do not qualify. A preprint or report is acceptable if its proof is sufficiently substantiated and receives credible independent validation or acceptance from recognised experts in analytic number theory or the wider mathematical community, even without journal publication. Use reliable reporting as the evidence record; otherwise use NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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