Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This market resolves Yes if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of President of the United States through the Section 4 process of the 25th Amendment by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. If the Vice President becomes Acting President under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, that does not affect resolution. Only Trump’s removal through the Section 4 process qualifies for Yes. If Trump ceases to be President before the expiration date for any other reason, this market may resolve No immediately. Resolution is based on official information from the U.S. government.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @guardian
