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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if the 2026 US House election in Texas's 4th congressional district, expected on 3 November 2026, ends in a Republican win by at least 30 but under 35 points; any other result gives NO. The winning margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. A margin sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. Democratic and Republican mean the nominees of those parties; independent candidates fill neither slot, and if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement takes that party's slot. If first place is tied, the result is treated as the lowest band for one tied candidate: among the Democratic and Republican nominees, the one whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; a party nominee goes ahead of any other tied candidate, and if only other candidates share first place, NO. The official vote count decides once it is final; a recount begun before the count is official keeps the outcome open until the recount is done and the vote is final. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The official result from the responsible state election authority decides, with broad agreement among reputable election reports as a fallback.
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