Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
This prediction is about how many valid votes Wisconsin records in its 2026 midterm race for governor. Every certified vote for a candidate or for any option on the ballot that is not a candidate counts; blank or invalid ballots do not. If the count is ranked-choice or preferential, the first-round total is used. YES if the total is at least 2,200,000 but below 2,400,000; otherwise NO. A total landing exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the total is treated as below 2,200,000, so then only the lowest range is YES. The certified official count from the Wisconsin state authority in charge of certifying this election comes first; overwhelming agreement among reputable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
