Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES means a US federal or state jurisdiction brings formal criminal charges against Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher, or publicly announces an indictment of him between 30 July 2026 and 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The District of Columbia and all local government units within a state, such as counties and cities, are included. Official US government records lead, while a wide body of reliable reporting may supplement them. If no qualifying charge or indictment is brought or announced by the cutoff, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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