Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:19 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 8% chance and No at 92%.
YES if Cristina Kirchner ends up as the presidential candidate of the leading Peronist alliance for Argentina's 2027 election, which is set for 24 Oct 2027. That alliance means whichever party or coalition counts the Partido Justicialista (PJ) as a national member; in October 2026 this is Fuerza Patria. Should the PJ stand alone instead of within an alliance, its own candidate counts. A person becomes the nominee only once the alliance has formally lodged their bid for the first round and the competent Argentine electoral court has approved it (oficializada). Winning a primary, if one takes place, is not enough until that first-round approval follows. If nobody from the alliance has an approved first-round candidacy by 23:59 ET on 24 Oct 2027, NO. A swap of candidate after approval changes nothing. Anyone other than Cristina Kirchner as the approved candidate is NO. Argentine government announcements decide, among them those of the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral; consistent reports from reputable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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