Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Republican Party (Brad Knott) at a 84% chance and Democratic Party (Paul Barringer) at 15%.
YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the U.S. House seat for North Carolina's 13th congressional district (NC-13) at the midterm election on 3 November 2026. Each answer stands for a party; the name in brackets is that party's current nominee, and if the nominee changes, the answer still follows the party. A candidate's party is the ballot-listed or otherwise clearly identifiable affiliation at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called; a winner listed on the ballot as neither Democrat nor Republican counts for the party with which, at that moment, they most recently stated an intention to caucus. If the winner cannot be counted for either party this way, both answers are NO; otherwise exactly one answer is YES. There is no fixed cutoff: settlement waits until the race has been conclusively called and the winner's party is fixed as described above, which can take days or weeks after the polls close on the evening of 3 November 2026 (local time). Broad agreement among reliable news reports decides the result; if there is ambiguity, the official results reported by the U.S. Federal Election Commission control.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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