Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 60 to 65% at a 28% chance, ahead of Republican 55 to 60% at 27% and Republican 50 to 55% at 16%.
YES is the live bracket matching the certified margin between the top two candidates in Alabama district AL-04’s 3 November 2026 House election. Compute the absolute percentage-point gap from valid-vote shares; an exact boundary enters the higher band. Democratic and Republican nominees represent their parties; independents do not, and a nominee substituted before election day keeps the party slot. For a top-vote tie, use the lowest band: listed versus listed uses the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, listed versus unlisted uses the listed candidate, and two or more unlisted leaders produce Other. Use the official vote count once made official; a pre-certification recount keeps the result open until completion and certification. The state certifier is primary, with overwhelming agreement among reliable reports as fallback. Deadline: 30 June 2027, 11:59 PM ET; if still unknown, use Other.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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