Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 71% chance and No at 29%.
YES applies when Russia and Ukraine have mutually agreed by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET to a general suspension of direct military action, announced by both governments or established by broad agreement among reputable reports. A wider settlement, normalization pact, political arrangement, truce, or humanitarian pause qualifies only when it contains that mutually agreed general pause with a specified effective date. Informal understandings, back-channel communications, de-escalation without an announced agreement, unilateral pauses, and arrangements limited to particular targets or locations do not qualify. An agreement reached before the cutoff qualifies even if it takes effect later. NO applies otherwise. Official information from Russia and Ukraine is primary, with reputable reports as corroboration.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
