Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 30% chance and No at 70%.
YES applies if, by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the Jerusalem District Court convicts Benjamin Netanyahu of any criminal offence in his trial on Cases 1000, 2000 and 4000 (charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery). The conviction can come from the court's verdict or from a plea deal approved by the court in which he admits a criminal offence or enters a guilty plea to one. Being convicted only of a lesser or amended charge also counts. NO applies if all charges are dismissed or withdrawn, if a pardon or another act of clemency ends the case before any verdict, if the case ends in a plea deal in which he neither pleads guilty nor admits any criminal offence, or if no verdict has been given by the deadline. Only the first judgment in the case counts; sentencing and any appeals do not change the result. The official judgment of the court decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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