Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Spotify's official 2026 year-end ranking for the United States places "Die With A Smile" by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars as the number two song; if a different song takes that spot, NO. Songs are ordered by their chart position; if two or more songs share a position, they are put in alphabetical order of their full listed song titles (not the artist names), and the song standing second after that ordering counts. If Spotify has not published its number two US song for 2026 by 31 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Spotify's official year-end report, usually part of Spotify Wrapped, decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
