Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 7 to 8 seats at a 58% chance, ahead of 9 to 10 seats at 18% and Fewer than 7 seats at 13%.
Count the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) seats won in Israel's Knesset election, expected on 27 October 2026, and select the one bracket containing that count. YES applies to the matching live bracket. If UTJ runs on a joint list, count all seats won by that list; if it merges before the vote, count the resulting party or joint list. If the result is not definitive by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use the lowest bracket. Use election results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee as the controlling record; a consensus of reputable reporting may also support the count when consistent. The count is of seats, not vote share.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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