Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Michael McGuire (R) at a 2% chance and Herb Conaway (D) at 98%.
This prediction is about who wins the seat for New Jersey's 3rd congressional district (NJ-03) in the US House of Representatives at the 2026 midterm elections, with election day on 3 November 2026 (dates here are US Eastern Time, ET). YES goes to the winning candidate's party. The answers are parties, not individual people: a win by any candidate of a party counts for that party. A winner's party is the affiliation shown on the ballot or otherwise clearly identifiable, as it stands at the moment reliable election reporting has conclusively called every 2026 House race. A winner without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they would caucus with, judged at that same moment. If the winner cannot be assigned to either party this way, both answers are NO. At most one answer can be YES. There is no cutoff date: the prediction settles once the race has been conclusively called and the winner's party can be fixed as described above. Broad agreement among reliable election reporting decides; if that leaves any doubt, only the official results published by the US Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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