Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic lead: 15 to under 20 points at a 39% chance, ahead of Democratic lead of 30 points or more at 38% and Democratic lead: 25 to under 30 points at 38%.
YES belongs to the answer matching the winning candidate's party and victory margin in the 2026 CA-38 US House election, scheduled for 3 November 2026. For each of the top two candidates, divide their valid votes by all valid votes cast; the absolute difference between those shares, in percentage points, is the margin. Party labels cover any general-election candidate representing that party. At a bracket boundary, use the higher bracket. For a first-place tie between listed candidates, choose the lowest margin bracket of the candidate whose surname, as printed on the ballot, sorts first alphabetically. For a listed/unlisted tie, use the listed candidate's lowest bracket; a tie solely among unlisted candidates means Other. Use actual ballot surnames even where answers use party labels. Use the count once official. A recount started before that point keeps the prediction open until both the recount and official count are complete. If results remain indefinite at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027, select Other. The certifying state election authority's official results are primary; overwhelming agreement across reliable reporting may also establish the result. Nonmatching answers receive NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
