Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:17 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 49% chance and No at 51%.
YES if Arnold Barnes III finishes first in rushing yards among all players on Big 12 Conference teams over the NCAA FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) regular season of 2026, after the tie-breaks below; otherwise NO. A player is counted for the Big 12 only if the NCAA recognises the Big 12 as his team's football conference for the 2026 season (membership in other sports does not count). Only regular-season games count. If two or more players share the highest total, the tied player with more rushing touchdowns over that regular season ranks first; if they are still level, the one averaging more rushing yards per attempt ranks first. If players remain level after both steps, the answer is NO. If the season stops early or is cut short for any reason, the Big 12 leader is taken from official NCAA FBS statistics covering the games that were completed. If the 2026 regular season is cancelled, is postponed beyond 3 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or if by that time it is still unclear who led the Big 12 in rushing yards, the answer is NO. If the Big 12 leader in rushing yards is another player, the answer is NO. Official NCAA statistics (the FBS statistics pages on ncaa.com) decide; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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