Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
This prediction is decided by the Overall table of the Text Arena leaderboard on arena.ai, checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026 using the Labs view, the Lab Rank column and style control switched off (Adjustments: None). Only primarily Chinese companies are ranked: a company qualifies if it is headquartered in China and mainly owned by, or operating within, China's technology ecosystem. Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Meituan, MiniMax, Moonshot, StepFun, Tencent, Xiaomi and Z.ai all count, as do other qualifying Chinese companies. Models labelled AutoEval at the check are left out, even if a score or rank is shown. Qualifying companies are ordered by Lab Rank. If lab ranks are missing or unclear, each qualifying company is placed by its best-ranked model in the Models view instead; models sharing a rank are ordered by Arena score, including the unrounded figures in the data below the table, and any remaining tie goes to the company whose name comes first alphabetically (for example Meituan before Xiaomi). YES if Tencent is the company in third place after these steps. If any other company, listed above or not, is third, NO. If the leaderboard is offline at the check time, the first check after it returns decides; later changes to the table do not replace that reading. If the table is permanently unavailable, NO. arena.ai is the only source.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
