Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES applies if Tim Walz spends any period in a U.S. federal, state or local jail or prison from the prediction's opening through 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Official U.S. government information is primary, with independent reporting used if necessary. A charge or proceeding without actual jail or prison time does not satisfy the condition; if no qualifying custody occurs by the cutoff, NO applies.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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