Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
Resolves YES if, from 27 September 2026, 14:32:13 UTC through 10 October 2026, 11:59 PM ET, inclusive, OpenAI announces that it has restarted training that was halted under the pause it disclosed on 25 September 2026. Otherwise NO. A restart counts whether it is partial or complete, and starting a new training run to replace one that was halted also counts. The announcement has to come through OpenAI's own official channels or from a representative authorised to speak for the company in an official capacity. It does not have to mention the incidents or the date of the pause, as long as the announcement and its context, taken as a whole, clearly show that training halted by that pause is running again. Statements that training is allowed, planned or expected to restart are not enough on their own, and training that the 25 September pause never covered does not count. Once a qualifying announcement is made in time, the answer stays YES even if the announcement is later changed or withdrawn, or training is halted again afterwards. Decided primarily by official information from OpenAI; broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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