Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 54% chance and No at 46%.
YES applies if, from the prediction’s opening through 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, OpenAI or one of its official representatives announces that OpenAI solved one of five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems: P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, the Hodge Conjecture, Yang–Mills existence and mass gap, or the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. Claims about Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness do not count. The announcement must say the problem has been solved; partial results or reports of progress do not count. It must credit the solution to OpenAI itself, its researchers or its models, whether alone or together with outside researchers. A statement that merely praises or credits outside researchers does not count, even when those researchers used OpenAI’s models, computing power or research credits. No confirmation by the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other body is needed. NO applies if no qualifying announcement is made in that period. Official communications from OpenAI or its representatives come first; consistent reputable reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
