Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES applies if Amazon owns the model in first place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard at the applicable check. On 30 November 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, inspect the Text Arena Math leaderboard with style control off (Adjustments: None) and the Models filter selected. Exclude every model marked AutoEval at that check, even if a rank or score is displayed. Rank eligible models by the displayed Rank value. When Rank values tie, compare the underlying unrounded Arena scores shown in the page data; the greater score is ahead. If the rank and exact score still tie, order the company names alphabetically, with Google before SpaceXAI in that example. YES applies only when the first model after those steps is owned by Amazon; if any other company is first, including a company without a separate prediction, NO. The whole eligible table is considered, and there is no unlisted-company exception. If the page is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, use the first successful check after it returns. If the leaderboard never returns, NO. The arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard is the deciding record.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
