Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 12 October 2026, 20:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
YES if the first round of Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election, expected on 25 October 2026, ends in a first-place finish for Iliana Iotova by under 10 points; any other result gives NO. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the shares of valid votes won by the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. Iliana Iotova and Andrey Gyurov count as individual ballot candidates, not as party options; party affiliation and replacement nominees do not change the answer. A margin sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If first place is tied, the candidate among Iotova and Gyurov whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically is selected, and either named candidate is selected ahead of any other tied candidate; if only other candidates share first place, NO. The selected candidate receives the lowest margin band, under 10 points. If Iotova is selected by that tie order, YES; if Gyurov or only other candidates are selected, NO. The certified official count decides. If a recount begins while the count remains unofficial, settlement waits until the recount is complete and the count is officially certified. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission decide; only overwhelming agreement among trustworthy reports may be used as a fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
