Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:33 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
YES if the Republican Party ends up with 46 or fewer Senate seats and 193 to 207 House seats after the 2026 midterms (election day 3 November 2026); if either total falls outside that range, NO. Count every regular and special Senate election that, as of 31 October 2026, is set to be held in November 2026 and decides a seat in the 120th Congress; a vacant Senate seat with no such November 2026 election scheduled as of that date counts for the party of its most recent holder. Count all House elections in the 2026 midterms that choose voting members of the 120th Congress. Where a seat is settled in a runoff, the runoff result decides that seat, even when the runoff takes place after November 2026. A contested seat counts for the party under which its member was elected; a member-elect's later party change or departure before Congress formally organizes does not alter it. A seat not contested in 2026 counts for the party holding it on election day, including when a sitting senator who is not up for election later changes party or leaves. A member elected as an independent counts for a party only if they formally caucus with it or, for a newly elected member, announce an intent to caucus with it; if this is unknown on election day, the prediction waits for such an announcement or until 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first, and a member with no announcement by then counts for no party. Official information from state election authorities and the U.S. Congress decides, together with broad agreement among reliable reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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