Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:57 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is December 31 at a 18% chance, ahead of October 31 at 5% and August 31 at <1%.
This market resolves YES if Russia and Ukraine reach a qualifying ceasefire agreement by the specified date at 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What qualifies as a ceasefire agreement: Russia and Ukraine must mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement. The agreement must either be officially announced by both governments or confirmed through a consensus of credible reporting as having been accepted by both sides. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause qualifies if it contains a mutual commitment to suspend direct military engagement beginning on a clearly specified date. What does NOT qualify: An agreement that provides only for future negotiations or general de-escalation measures does not count unless it contains an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. Informal understandings, backchannel communications, unannounced de-escalation, and unilateral pauses in hostilities are also excluded. Scope requirement: The agreement must establish a general pause in the conflict. Arrangements limited to particular categories of military activity, types of targets, or geographic locations do not qualify. Timing: If the parties officially reach a qualifying agreement before the market deadline, the market resolves YES even if the ceasefire is scheduled to take effect after that deadline. Resolution source: Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, together with a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
