Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 85% chance and No at 15%.
YES requires Futuro Nazionale’s valid vote total to exceed Lega’s in Italy’s next general election, expected by 22 December 2027. An equal or smaller total gives NO, except for the neutral cases below. Count only votes cast within Italy and exclude the Valle d’Aosta constituency as well as votes from abroad. If either party runs on a joint list with another party, use that entire joint list’s vote total. Coalition totals do not count: only the party list or qualifying shared list is relevant. A renamed or reconstituted party that remains functionally the same entity counts as its predecessor. If both named parties share one joint list, settlement is one half for each side. The same neutral treatment applies if either party dissolves or does not contest the election, or if no election or definitive result exists by 30 June 2028 at 11:59 PM ET. Official Italian government election information, published through elezioni.interno.gov.it, takes priority; agreement among reliable reporting is the fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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