Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Lorenia Valles Sampedro at a 62% chance, ahead of Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas at 18% and Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez at 9%.
YES goes to whichever listed candidate wins Sonora's 2027 election for Governor, currently scheduled for 6 June 2027. An interim or caretaker governor does not count as the winner. If the result is not definitively known by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or the winner is not one of the listed candidates, every listed candidate is NO. At most one listed candidate can be YES. Broad agreement among reputable news reports on the election result decides; if that is unclear or the reports conflict, only the official results published by the authorities of Mexico and Sonora count, including Sonora's state electoral institute and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
