Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 15-20% at a 26% chance, ahead of Republican 10-15% at 24% and Republican 20-25% at 16%.
YES is assigned to the displayed answer matching the winning party and applicable margin. For a party-and-margin answer, its band must contain the absolute percentage-point gap between the first- and second-place candidates in the 2026 FL-03 House election, expected on 3 November 2026. If the answer set has a standalone winner option for a party, that option is YES whenever that party wins. Calculate each top-two candidate's valid-vote share against all valid votes cast, then take the absolute difference. A gap exactly on a band boundary uses the higher band. Democratic and Republican nominees fill their respective party categories; independent candidates do not, and a replacement nominee takes over that party's slot if the nominee changes before election day. If first place is tied, use the lowest applicable band: among listed candidates, the ballot-listed surname that comes first alphabetically decides; a listed candidate takes precedence over an unlisted one, while a tie only among unlisted candidates is Other. If a party is shown by name rather than a candidate, use that nominee's ballot surname for this tie-break. Use the official vote count once it is final. A recount started before the count is official keeps the outcome open until the recount is complete and the vote is final. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use Other. The responsible state electoral authority's official result is primary, and a broad agreement among reputable election reports may also be used. Exactly one displayed answer is YES; all other displayed answers are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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