Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:33 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This prediction concerns the New South Wales state election scheduled for 27 March 2027, which elects the 59th Parliament. After that election, count every seat in the Legislative Council, the state's upper chamber, including members elected on 27 March and continuing members whose terms remain in force. The eight parties or coalitions considered are Labor; Liberal–National; Greens; One Nation; Legalise Cannabis; Animal Justice; Libertarian; and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. Liberal–National combines all seats held by Liberal Party and Nationals members, regardless of parliamentary cooperation, and combines their valid first-preference votes. Independent members are not a party or coalition, are not combined with one another, and cannot rank first for this prediction. Rank the eight named parties or coalitions first by total Legislative Council seats after the election. Break equal seat totals using the larger total of valid first-preference votes cast in the Legislative Council election. If those vote totals also match, rank the name earlier in alphabetical order. YES if Libertarian ranks first under that sequence; otherwise NO. If an unlisted party or coalition ranks first, or if the result cannot be determined by 31 July 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, answer NO. Reputable news reports may be used to identify the result; if they conflict or leave uncertainty, official results published by the NSW Electoral Commission at elections.nsw.gov.au decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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