Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This market resolves Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that the core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g., the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system, or have otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of Iran's population. This may occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic's core structures do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity, such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic, qualifies. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups do not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
