Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES means Microsoft is ranked third among eligible companies on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard checked on 30 November 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The page must be the Overall Text Arena leaderboard with style control off, Adjustments set to None, and the Labs view selected. Companies are ordered first by the Lab Rank value. Models labelled AutoEval at that check are excluded even when a rank or score is displayed. If Lab Rank does not provide a usable ordering, use each company’s highest-ranked model from the same leaderboard’s Models view with the same settings. For models tied on rank, compare Arena scores using the most precise values available, including unrounded data shown below the table. If a tie remains, order these company names alphabetically: Alibaba, Amazon, Anthropic, Baidu, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Google, Meituan, Meta, Microsoft, MiniMax, Mistral, Moonshot, Nvidia, OpenAI, SpaceXAI, StepFun, Tencent, Thinky, Xiaomi, Z.ai. The company in third place under that procedure determines the result; any other company in third place makes NO. If the leaderboard is unreachable at the scheduled check, wait until it is available and use the first successful check afterward. If it is permanently unavailable, NO. Official data on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
