Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the territory of any UN member state other than Ukraine by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, any land under the de facto control of a UN member state as of market creation will be treated as the sovereign territory of that state. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
