Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 16% chance and No at 84%.
Resolves YES if, from 9 September 2026, 16:00:14 UTC through 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET, OpenAI, or a person officially speaking for the company, announces that OpenAI has solved one of these five Millennium Prize Problems of the Clay Mathematics Institute: the Hodge Conjecture, the Riemann Hypothesis, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, P versus NP, or Yang–Mills existence and mass gap. Otherwise NO. Announcements about the Navier–Stokes problem do not count. The announcement must state that the problem is solved; progress reports and partial results are not enough. The solution has to be credited to OpenAI, to its researchers or to its models, either on their own or together with any outside researchers. An announcement that credits or congratulates only outside researchers, including people who used OpenAI's models, computing power or research credits, does not count. No confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other body is required. Official information from OpenAI or its official representatives is the main basis; broad agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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