Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 13:00 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 39% chance and No at 61%.
YES if the general election for the US House seat of California's 46th congressional district, scheduled for 3 November 2026, ends in a Democratic win by at least 10 but under 15 points; any other result gives NO. The winning margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. A margin sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. Democrat and Republican mean any candidate of that party on the general election ballot, also when both finalists come from the same party. If first place is tied, only the tied Democrats and Republicans are considered, and the one whose last name as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner by the lowest band (a Democratic win by under 5 points, or a Republican win); if no tied candidate belongs to either party, or the winner belongs to neither party, NO. The certified official vote count decides; if a recount begins before certification, the outcome waits until the recount ends and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Certified results published by the California Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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