Will Ukraine join NATO as a full member by 31 Dec?

As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.

Category

geopolitics

Closes

2026-12-31 23:59 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 01:30 UTC

This market resolves Yes if Ukraine formally becomes a full member of NATO before January 1, 2027 (Central European local time). Otherwise, it resolves No. Resolution will be based on official information from NATO and/or Ukraine, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Answer options

• Yes2%
• No98%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by @eudebates