Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is No change at a 66% chance, ahead of 25 bps increase at 32% and 25 bps decrease at 2%.
Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Decisions on the target federal funds range are made at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the number of basis points by which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed, relative to the level it was at prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps and will resolve to the relevant bracket (e.g. a cut or increase of 12.5 bps will be considered to be 25 bps). The resolution source for this market is the FOMC's statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26–27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published on the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC's statement for its January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
