Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 10% chance and No at 90%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hamas officially announces by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying announcement must come from Hamas’s widely recognized leadership or another official Hamas authority. “Disarm” means a public commitment by Hamas to relinquish or dismantle its military capabilities in the Gaza Strip, whether in whole or in part. Announcements of partial disarmament — for example, surrendering a category of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a specific area — will qualify if they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, conditional proposals, non-binding expressions of intent, or other statements that do not amount to a formal policy announcement will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming that Hamas has adopted a policy of disarmament will also qualify.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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