Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES if, at any time from 24 September 2026 through 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, OpenAI's frontier model has a standard API output price of at least $70 per million tokens. OpenAI's frontier model is the eligible model with the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score among entries whose Creator is OpenAI on Artificial Analysis's model leaderboard (artificialanalysis.ai), with the Status filter on Current and the Weights, Size, Price and Reasoning filters each left on All. Scores are taken as displayed, ignoring any finer or unrounded figures published elsewhere. Leaderboard rows that differ only in reasoning effort or settings count as one model, which uses its best displayed score. A model is eligible only if OpenAI's official API pricing page lists a standard output price for it and anyone can access it; open betas and open rolling waitlists count, but closed betas and private or restricted access do not. When eligible models share the top score, the prices of all of them are checked, and one at $70 or more is enough. Use the Standard output price, taking the Short context rate when prices differ by context length. Cached-input, batch, flex, priority, fast-mode, long-context, regional and data-residency prices are ignored, as are promotional, temporary and volume-discount prices. A price counts only while its model meets the frontier test in that period, so a later leaderboard entry or score change cannot make an earlier price count. Artificial Analysis decides the scores and OpenAI's pricing page decides the prices; official announcements, archived copies of those pages and reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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