Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 68% chance and No at 32%.
YES applies if, by 31 December 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, a tapered issuance burn is active and enforced on the canonical Ethereum mainnet. It must be a consensus-layer change described by EIP-8361 or a renumbered, revised or successor proposal that charges validators a deduction from consensus-layer issuance or staking rewards, permanently destroys the deducted ETH rather than redirecting it, and increases that deduction with Ethereum's staking ratio so the net incentive to stake declines toward zero near a defined saturation level. Formula, saturation, transition-schedule and base-reward parameters may change without affecting the result if those conditions remain true. A reward change without an ETH-destruction mechanism that scales with the staking share does not qualify. A draft, proposal, EIP status update, client release, testnet launch or fork plan by itself is insufficient. The upgrade must be enforced in canonical mainnet blocks on the chain recognised by most validators and economic activity; minority forks do not count. A later rollback does not change YES. The Ethereum blockchain is primary evidence, with independent reporting from multiple reputable outlets as corroboration. Otherwise, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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